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Cake day: July 23rd, 2023

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  • Well, one potential psychological flaw in her $50k small business tax credit is that it’s only for new small businesses to go towards startup costs.

    Existing small businesses that may be struggling can look at that and only see her making it easier for their future competition to get rolling. It’s a net negative for them.

    Just about the only people that are going to look at that tax credit and see how it benefits them are people that are already looking into starting a small business and the main thing holding them back is the startup costs. That’s probably not a lot of voters.













  • I’d like to remind everyone that 8 years ago, the polls showed Hillary was going to trounce Trump pretty handedly. There was tons of discussion after the election about how the polls could be so wrong.

    I think Fivethityeight’s explanation went something like…

    If a candidate is only polling 40% to their opponents’s 60%, and you were to run the election 10 times with a different sampling of voters each time, it doesn’t mean that the candidate will lose by 60% every time. It means they’re going to win four times out of ten.

    Don’t let polls lull you into either complacency or despair. The only thing polls are really good for is giving pundits something to talk about in the 24 hour news cycle. Polls don’t decide the election. Only actual votes on actual ballots that are actually submitted in time decide the election.