He voted for Trump. Not a ton of Democrats do that. Call me crazy but while I’d assume someone who ends up attempting assassination doesn’t like the person they attempt assassinating, that doesn’t mean they are automatically a member of the opposing political party. 1/3rd of Americans are independents.

Feels like it’s more xenophobic. Obviously one assumes many of the referenced people are brown, but they are assumed poor too and we aren’t saying it’s classist. The thing that unites all of the people implicated in the claim is that they are foreigners.

He’s a paid something or other for them, why?

It’s a chance of winning, not a poll, so 64% is high but not insane. Silver is serious and it’s a decent model. Knowing the model there’s a pretty good chance this is a high point for Trump but it’s not like he’s pulling this out of nowhere, he has had similar models every election cycle since like 2008.

If it’s overstaying Trump it’s because his model is interpreting the data incorrectly because of the weirdness of this election cycle. I personally think that is likely the case here.

I suspect Harris got her “convention bounce” (as defined by the model) right when she became the nominee, this made the model think she was overperforming pre-convention and now the bounce is fading “early” when the model thinks she should still have it so it seems like she’s underperformed.

If this is the theory, knowing how close the swing states are and thus how swingy it can be, most likely this number goes back to maybe 55/45 Trump.

I saw a bird in an airport.

I read the link and saw the numbers. Is there a deeper link that disproves something I said?

If it goes down in value at the same rate as the last month or something, it’ll be ~$1 billion at the end of September. I forget the exact math but something like that.

Trump can sell his 115 million shares on September 25th, everyone trying to get out before that happens.

Absolutely wild campaign finance workaround though. If he sells it all he’s still on track to get $1 billion or so. That’s his personal wealth, which can be contributed without limit to his campaign.

I’m highly suspicious of the results, as you should always be when a group with a stated political goal releases a poll that shows their favored political goal is what a politician should do.

You have to think there was bias in the presentation, eg the question was framed particularly softly like “if Kamala announced she would abide by current US law including the Leahy Law suspending arms shipments until there is a ceasefire which would save the lives of civilians on both sides” or whatever…that is all 100% true and consistent with what they’re saying, but in real life if she did that she’d get millions of dollars of negative ads framing the decision differently.

Or maybe they just ran the poll 5 times and didn’t release the others because this one was the best result for them. That doesn’t make it an illegitimate poll, but it makes it more likely that the numbers are the high end of the potential benefit from such a stance.

One other way this poll could be true but misleading is that maybe this declaration brings her from 44% to 49%, but it puts Trump from 40% to 51%. Or whatever. It’s possible that with no clarity, she goes from 44% to 52% because you can’t literally vote undecided, and the 49% number is actually her doing worse than she would have.

I wonder who Dan Quayle is voting for

Threads was because if you had an Instagram account it ported over.

Bluesky was the Twitter clone made by the old Twitter CEO.

Most people didn’t have a problem with Twitter being a corporation, they had a problem with the new owner of the corporation making the experience terrible with his new changes.

If Al Gore had won New Hampshire he would have won even without Florida. It could be important.

That said, it’s polling more Democratic than Texas is Republican. By the time you’re likely to win New Hampshire you would have already won Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona, and thus the election. Not worth putting resources into.

For once, this complaint is fully justified. She answered the question and said ‘next’ and they’re implying she didn’t answer the question by just saying ‘next.’

I feel like sometimes “out of context” means they didn’t report on additional relevant nuance in an answer but I’m sympathetic to headline authors who need punchy headlines, you can’t have a full 20 minute answer in a headline. But this was a 6 word response and they took the last two and pretended she didn’t say the first 4. That is bad.

Around Rochester NY theres a Chili but they pronounce it Chai-lie.

I’d actually prefer the justice system abide by the law and current sentencing guidelines. But like yes, obviously he should be prosecuted if he breaks the law just like…anyone else you might name.

A Welshman about to traverse a steep-sided hollow at the head of a valley: “Oh baby I’m gonna cwm!”

There really should be a Bluetooth setting for “do not auto connect me.” My car does this too, I wear bluetooth headphones a lot and for short to medium car trips it’s not worth it to have to connect and put my headphones back only to pull them back out and reconnect after I arrive, I’d rather just listen to headphones the whole time, but my car waits until I’ve turned on the car and pulled out of the driveway to auto connect against my wishes.

Finally, slower mail. The one thing that was keeping the Post Office from being profitable was how fast the mail got sent.

Ironically if the Bible had specifically called out race-based bigotry as seen hundreds of years later during and after the African Slave Trade it would have been pretty good evidence of God’s omniscience.

Or it would have caused some sort of time loop since Christian Europeans wouldn’t have done it if it was explicitly called out.