You are right about stupid people falling for stupid shit, but that’s not why democrats lost. Trump got less votes than he did in 2020, that 70 million who voted for Trump are just people who love what Trump says.
What made democrats lose are the 16 million votes Biden got that Harris didn’t get. The GOP didn’t magically make those votes disappear, those missing votes is the failure of the democratic party.
There’s a bigger likelyhood Harris wins the electoral college than the popular vote, but both are pretty unlikely.