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- cross-posted to:
- [email protected]
Summary
Donald Trump’s advisers are proposing plans to end the Ukraine war that involve territorial concessions to Russia and ruling out NATO membership for Ukraine.
These proposals aim to pressure both sides into negotiations, leveraging military aid as a carrot or stick. Plans include freezing current battle lines or creating demilitarized zones.
Analysts doubt the feasibility, citing likely resistance from Ukraine, European allies, and U.S. lawmakers.
Trump’s approach reflects his campaign pledge to resolve the conflict quickly, but critics argue it risks legitimizing Russian aggression and undermining Western alliances.
You say that, but without the US military support it will be rough for Ukraine. The EU has spent a bunch of money to get all other kinds of aid to Ukraine, much more than the US. But the US has supplied more military support, more than the EU. If the US stops helping out, the EU will probably not be able to fill the gap. And Trump can put pressure on the EU by threatening to pull out of Nato again. If Russia decides to invade more countries and the US leaves Nato hanging, the EU is in trouble. Now these are a lot of ifs and since Trump has been elected the EU has been preparing. Plus laws have been passed in the US to prevent Trump from pulling out of Nato, but you know how much Trump cares about laws. Once the EU feels like they don’t need the support from the US any more, Trump has nothing to say anymore, but we ain’t there yet.
The US has supplied a lot of aid, and aid that cannot be obtained from elsewhere, but in terms of volume, the EU has gradually passed it by.
Sadly, it seems unlikely that the EU can ramp up weapons industries much faster. Ukrainians themselves have stated that without US assistance, they would run a serious risk of losing the war.
Yeah, basically the US can decide who gets how much of an advantage in this war by simply dialing up or down their military aid.
Ukraine not willing to negotiate? Dial it down. Russia not willing? Dial it up.
So they can end this war if they are willing to invest accordingly. But not this conflict. Will that lead to a stable peace, or just another war in the near future? Without satisfying answers to these questions, Ukraine is probably better off to keep fighting, even without any US aid, which repeals the first sentence of this paragraph.