No using search engines or calculator, just imagine you were given these choices in jail and got 30 seconds to choose.

Would you rather have the executioner (Please excuse my use of firearm terminology, I’m not an expert in guns):

[A] Load 1 chamber of 6 and spin before pull the trigger 6 times (spinning the chamber after each pull)

or

[B] Load 2 chamber of 6 and spin before pull the trigger 3 times (spinning the chamber after each pull)

or

[C] Load 4 chamber of 6 and spin before pull the trigger once

If you survive, you are pardoned of all crimes you’ve committed in the past and get to leave prison (alive, obviously), no compensation tho. (Attempts to end your own life is illegal)

Which of these options would you pick?

No search engine, no calculator pls. I’m bored and wanna make this fun. 😉

If you are confused, ask in comments.

Edit: Reworded it to clarify that the chamber is spinned before the first trigger is pulled.

  • Atomic@sh.itjust.works
    1·
    20 days ago

    For instance, in the case of 4/6, one must assume the bullets include 2 sequential empty chambers

    No. One must not assume that. You are trying to make all the assumptions that benefit you. A certain bald spot somewhere. A bias in the mechanism that they know about, somehow it’s also about capitalism bla bla bla. You put a lot of effort into purposefully misunderstanding how simple statistics work.

    And no. If you survive the first pull. You are LESS likely to survive the second. Not more.

    It’s still the same 5/6 chance. But you having to get that chance multiple times in row makes it less likely the longer you go on. And the math will have it so after 6 times. It comes out to about ~33%

    How you feel about it on a philosophical level doesn’t change the reality around you.

    You can choose which ever option you feel more comfortable with. And that’s ok. But it’s not going to change how statistics work.

    • j4k3@lemmy.worldEnglish
      1·
      20 days ago

      I don’t believe in fate and you do. That is where this abstract overlying philosophical element ends in a stalemate. Your statistics are assuming an oversimplified set of constraints and coming to arbitrary conclusions.

      • Atomic@sh.itjust.works
        1·
        20 days ago

        I do not believe in fate.

        You should stop assuming things because you’re not very accurate with your assumptions.

        Do you want to speculate if the rounds fired are hand loaded or factory made? Maybe this specific batch of rounds had black pepper instead of gunpowder? Maybe the hammer will break just as he’s about to shoot, what are the chances of the executioner having a stroke or an aneurysm? maybe your mom would be your dad if she had balls. And your grandma would be a bike if she had wheels.

        I’m not going to debate elementary school level statistics with you. Option A and C both will give you ~33% chance of survival. But for you specifically. I’d recommend option B, for all of our sake.